The Climate Change Advisory Council (CCAC) published its Annual Review 2026: Industry and Waste on 14 October 2026. It projects industry will be only 11.6% below 2018 levels in the 2026 to 2030 period, against a sectoral target of 35%.
For any industrial heat pump Ireland project, the policy direction is now clear. Heating processes produced about 4.6 million tCO2e of the sector’s 6.0 million tCO2e in 2025, and the review names industrial heat pumps as a key option for low and medium temperature heat.
Industry is off track for 2030, not just behind
Provisional figures put industrial emissions at 6.0 million tCO2e in 2025, 11.4% of the national total. That is 15.9% below 2018. The CCAC expects little further progress: the projection for 2026 to 2030 is 11.6% below 2018, as production growth erodes recent gains.
The Council also states that industrial electrification has stalled rather than accelerated in recent years.
Industry overshot its first carbon budget by 9.1%
The sectoral emissions ceiling for industry over 2021 to 2025 was 30 million tCO2e. Provisional emissions were 32.7 million tCO2e.
- Overshoot: 32.7 minus 30 = 2.7 million tCO2e.
- As a share of the ceiling: 2.7 divided by 30 = 9.1% over.
- The CCAC reports this as 109.1% of the ceiling.
The second ceiling runs from 2026 to 2030 and is tied to the 35% target. The sector enters it already behind.
Most Irish industrial emissions come from making heat
Heat demand in Irish industry is 22 TWh, 81% of total industrial energy demand. Heating processes account for about 4.6 million tCO2e. Most Irish industrial emissions come from making heat, not from the process itself.
Cement is the exception. It produces about 2.2 million tCO2e, roughly 37% of industrial emissions, much of it from process chemistry that heat pumps cannot address.
Dairy growth is outpacing dairy cuts
Dairy processing emissions rose 3.6% in 2025, following a 4.8% rise in milk production. Food and drink emissions overall fell 2.1%. For processors in Cork, Kerry and Limerick, volume growth is now the main driver of site emissions.
Pasteurization, cleaning in place, evaporation and drying run on steam and hot water. A large share of that load sits at temperatures a heat pump can typically serve.
Industrial heat pump Ireland projects start below 150°C
The review estimates heat up to approximately 150°C at 40% of Irish industrial heat demand, or 7 TWh. That is the band where heat pumps and heat recovery can replace gas boilers today. The Council also asks the Commission for Regulation of Utilities (CRU) and ESB Networks to cut grid connection costs and timescales, a common barrier for electrified heat.
The practical sequence is a heat audit, then heat recovery, then a heat pump sized to what is left. Climeaction’s engineering design team designs heat pump and heat recovery systems for food, dairy and beverage sites. Climate Action as a Service builds the decarbonization plan around them, or talk to us.
The CCAC projects industry will miss its 35% target by a wide margin while electrification stalls. Sites that map their heat below 150°C and act on it are cutting the emissions the review identifies as the sector’s largest source.
